Next war is coming !...

The new Lebanon battlefield

Israelis don't fully realize scope of military threat posed by Hezbollah

Alex Fishman

Published:

05.14.10, 15:09 / Israel Opinion

Part 1 of article

Nobody knows whether a war will break out in Lebanon this summer. Yet what is completely clear is that a war in the north ? if and when such war breaks out ? will not be like the war that took place there in 2006. Hezbollah is growing stronger every day, in terms of the number of fighters, quantity of missiles, and capabilities. And what's even more significant: The way this military power will be utilized will be vitally different.

Every few weeks, another piece of information finds its way to the media and hints to the new face of the confrontation taking shape in Lebanon. Both sides prepare for the next round in full force, yet the lay citizen doesn't understand much of it. Well, another rocket was smuggled to Hezbollah, but it already has 40,000 anyway, so what's the difference, people say. All the rockets are the same, the average Israeli thinks.

Close Encounter

Time examines Hezbollah's war preparations / Ynet American weekly's journalist visits south Lebanon to find Shiite group ready and waiting for next conflict with Israel. 'Next war is coming, 100%, but we don't know when', one fighter says Full Story

Meanwhile, our defense establishment does not bother to inform the public about the kind of confrontation it should be preparing for. Israeli citizens had already been stunned by the scope of the damage that the other side can cause and rightfully asked: How come we didn't know? How come we didn't prepare? And who's responsible for this failure? Yet this is precisely what's happening now too.

Defense officials and academic experts see a very clear picture of the new battlefield in Lebanon, but the average citizen, who will be a full party to the fighting in the next war, has no idea. Nobody tells him anything.

Coincidently, a foreign professional newspaper recently published an item about the M-600 missiles supplied by Syria to Hezbollah. Yet someone in Israel finds it convenient to hide this information, just like the transfer of Scud missiles to Lebanon was a secret in Israel, until it was uncovered by an Arab newspaper. Here and there, someone hints something about tensions on the northern border. Occasionally, Arab media report about unusual Air Force over-flights. Yet for the average Israeli all this activity is out of bounds, on the order of authorities.

So why didn't Israel prevent the transfer of missiles and rockets into Lebanon? That's a good question. We may get the answer for it in the history books to be written in the future.

Terrorizing civilians

It's important that we understand that M-600 missiles in Hezbollah's possession are not just another item in its arsenal. That's the DNA; the code that exposes the new pattern of the group's preparation for the next confrontation.

Let's start from the fact that the M-600 is not a rocket, but rather, a much more accurate and effective weapon with strategic capabilities in Mideastern terms. Theoretically, Hezbollah would be able to hit the IDF headquarters in central Tel Aviv in the next war should it wish to do so. In 2006, it did not possess this ability.

Does it mean that what we saw in the Second Lebanon War ? hundreds of short and medium range rockets fired at northern Israel every day ? will not repeat? Not at all. Most of Hezbollah's 40,000 rockets are still of this type, and next time it will again use them in an effort to sow destruction in northern communities and hit IDF troops before they enter Lebanon.

Based on the last war's experience, these rockets are a "statistical weapon": The fire is inaccurate, most rockets land in unpopulated areas, and the number of casualties and extent of damage isn't great. However, in the next war, and in addition to the barrages we know, Hezbollah will have the option of firing dozens of accurate missiles simultaneously from dozens of launch sites across Lebanon ? while directing them at one specific target.

Not only will the damage caused by these missiles be much more accurate and graver, it's much more complicated to spot and destroy dozens of single missiles that will appear simultaneously at different sites.

The accurate missiles possessed by Hezbollah are meant to destroy strategic targets in central Israel. Such missiles are already deployed in southern Lebanon, with Hezbollah apparently intending to fire dozens of missiles daily for many days. At the same time, the group plans to fire thousands of other rockets, and through this combined attack destroy national infrastructure and various facilities.

The objective of the thousands of long-range missiles accumulated by Hezbollah would be to sow pure terror among civilians and undermine our willingness to fight. However, at this time, according to Hezbollah too, the group still does not possess enough accurate missiles in order to put this doctrine into action. This is precisely the junction that calls for much more intensive international and Israeli activity, in order to curb the flow of accurate arms into Lebanon, before it's too late.

---

Getting ready for Hezbollah

IDF to head into next Lebanon war with more firepower, upgraded capabilities

Alex Fishman

Published:

05.15.10, 17:01 / Israel Opinion

Part 2 of article

The Scud missiles which Hezbollah reportedly received from Syria are meant for a specific objective. Should it indeed turn out that the missiles smuggled in are of the Scud D type, this is apparently a threat on Israel's nuclear reactor in Dimona.

As far as is known, Nasrallah's group does not have plans to take over areas in the Galilee. It may have the ability to raid a community, in order to produce drama, yet its war will focus on firing rockets and missiles deep into Israel, over time. For that reason, most of its fortifications aim to protect and feed its strategic arm.

This protection is premised on roughly 160 military compounds established in southern Lebanon, in villages and in their vicinity, including in Christian enclaves. For that reason, when the IDF held drills it referred to the communities as military compounds in every way. For a change, the army will head into the next war in Lebanon with a plan that had already been practiced.

Hezbollah started the process of drawing lessons in the wake of the Second Lebanon War, and updated them following Operation Cast Lead in Gaza. The operation in the south in 2008-9 demonstrated to an even greater extent than in 2006 the grave results of the IDF's so-called "Dahiya Doctrine" ? Nasrallah realizes that today the IDF is in a whole new place, both in terms of maneuvering and firepower.

For this reason, Hezbollah (as well as Hamas) is rapidly digging up fortifications underground ? bunkers, headquarters, control centers, and passage ways from one sector to another.

In order to direct coordinated fire at the same target, one needs a much more advanced command and control system than the one possessed by Hezbollah thus far. Here, in fact, lies its vulnerability. On the one hand, it's hard to cope with a terror group that conducts itself like an army. On the other hand, Hezbollah is already suffering all the problems of an institutionalized military organization; problems which small and secretive guerilla cells are not afflicted with.

In the Second Lebanon War, the Air Force destroyed Hezbollah's long-range missiles within 35 minutes. Meanwhile, 50% of the rockets fired from industrialized short and mid range rocket launchers were destroyed before they were used, while the rest were destroyed immediately after the first attack. We can assume that the Israeli Air Force's and ground forces' abilities in terms of accurate weaponry and hitting such targets have improved since then, by several notches.

Hezbollah's dream is to maintain an army of at least 40,000 men, Today it has less than half of that, and the increase it aspires for requires compromise on manpower quality. Moreover, advanced weapons systems require strict maintenance and high technological capabilities. This is no longer a case of fighting with your Kalashnikov or RPG.

In the next war, UNIFIL will not be in south Lebanon. Its members will leave when the war breaks out, even if they're not saying this right now. UNIFIL does not have the mandate to interfere in the fighting, and it certainly has an interest in safeguarding its soldiers' lives.

On another front, the 15,000 troops of the Lebanese Army deployed south of the Litani River do not constitute a target for the IDF at this time. However, this army is expected to put up a fight once a war breaks out. Based on this logic, the IDF will be addressing this army as a hostile force. In other words, any clash that includes IDF ground movement in Lebanon will have to push aside and neutralize these 15,000 troops as quickly as possible.

Nasrallah is apparently unconvinced that his group has reached the optimal point to embark on war. He possesses endless amounts of rockets, yet not many accurate and long-range missiles. We can assume that once he accumulates a sufficient arsenal, the countdown shall begin. The fire will only be a matter of time.

And this is precisely the place to ask what Israel's government is doing so that these balance-violating weapons won't continue to pour into Hezbollah's hands, and whether the convoys that cross the Syria-Lebanon border should continue to enjoy impunity under UN Resolution 1701.

E-mail me Home http://goo.gl/kq8c